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Bruce G Honda's avatar

When I graduated from UW I had several offers but since I had done a Summer Intership with Weyerhaeuser Instrumentation R&D, I felt good about taking the Weyerhaeuser Professional Intership position. It wasn’t the highest offer, could’ve gone with Silicon Valley but starting around home felt safe. I met a lot of folks that summer and many family friends were at Weyerhaeuser. After buying a brand new Toyota SR-5 long bed pickup, Dad said I had to buy a house. For $49,950 I got a 1000 sqft, 3 bed, 1 bath Cracker Jack box that would’ve been paid off by now and goes for $450k now!?! I thought a $350/month mortgage was a lot then. How does anyone starting off these days afford anything? I think the HONDA Systems time was the most fun, chaotic, multitasking time of my life and there were no user manuals, FAQs or help desk. We just made it up as we went! Moores law lives on and the pace of technology change keeps accelerating. Change is the only constant.

Ruoting's avatar

This post is so spot on. Today’s tolerance window for “mistakes” is razor thin. IMO, one of the biggest driving factors for this is that real wages have not kept pace at all with the inflation of the core things you mention in this article: housing, education, childcare, etc, even in Silicon Valley, and in some ways, especially in Silicon Valley.

Consider this as a simple example. When you hired me as an APM at Barracuda in 2011, my starting salary was $100K. Carta’s 2026 benchmark for associate product managers for similar sized companies (non-AI since that totally skews the numbers) is $130k. And that is if those roles exist at all in future years with the expected labor compression from AI. So that is a 30% increase over 15 years, or a whopping 1.77% CAGR.

Seven, eight, nine-figure exits get the headlines in the Bay Area, but the vast majority of people here make their day-to-day work on salary and assume equity is paper money until it’s not. While we were lucky enough to get a few exits to create escape velocity, that is still the minority.

The cost of resetting seems untenable for most families now, even if you’re talking about dual income households. Median prices for single family homes in San Mateo county is 1.9M, with rates at 6%+, rent for similar kinds of homes is easily 5-8k per month, daycare/preschool costs $25-35k per year per kid. If you’re in a fortunate enough position to be able to make this work, most of those people are making it work with razor thin margins. There’s simply very little room for meaningful risk taking, hence the over-optimization on every decision.

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